• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0402

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 21 15:50:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 211550
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211549=20
    MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-211815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0402
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021

    Areas affected...Western MA...NY Hudson Valley...Western/Central
    Long Island...Western CT...NJ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 211549Z - 211815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated over the next hour
    or two along a cold front progressing through the Northeast.
    Damaging wind gusts are possible with these storms and trends are
    being monitored for possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low near the NY/NJ/PA
    border intersection. A warm front extends eastward/northeastward
    from this low across southern NY through western MA and off the far
    southern ME coast. This low is embedded within a broad area of low
    pressure preceding a strong frontal surge attendant to a shortwave
    moving into western PA/NY. This low is expected to deepen over the
    next few hours ahead of the front while the warm front lifts
    northward. As a result, temperatures in the low to mid 60s will
    likely be in place ahead of the front from western MA through
    central NJ. Low-level moisture will be modest (i.e. in upper 40s/low
    50s) but the steep low and mid-level lapse rates will foster modest
    buoyancy.

    Expectation is that deeper convection will begin developing along
    the front during the next hour or two before then moving quickly
    eastward across the region. Previously mentioned steep low-level
    lapse rates coupled with deep convection and strengthening low to
    mid-level flow will result in the potential for damaging wind gusts
    as the storms move through. Storm coverage may be high enough to
    merit watch issuance and convective trends are being monitored
    closely.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tbPhWBkR7sryPmCIqyK8gzD6rALG-u9NJENmE1fLTB24fy1XWjtnDR0Jn7js9oWL4iEsyGTU$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 42007464 42827370 42997248 42527173 40567305 40117347
    39677459 39897543 40937512 42007464=20



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