• Pacific-NW: Surigae R32

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Tue Apr 20 16:44:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 201800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.32 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 16.9N, 125.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
    940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS.
    THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
    INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND LOWER SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
    TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
    THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
    SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
    OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
    DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    GRADUALLY TURN TO THE EAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
    SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
    PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
    CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
    OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM
    WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
    WITH LOWER SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
    GUIDANCE DATA.
    =
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