• Indian-S: I95S Formation

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Tue Apr 20 16:43:00 2021
    WTXS21 PGTW 200830
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    105NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 52.8E TO 9.6S 47.0E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 10.8S 52.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 11.1S 53.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 52.4E, APPROXIMATELY 634
    NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY AND A 200256Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE
    BANDING WITH CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE
    LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200623Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS
    SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH 25-30KT
    WINDS AND A RELATIVELY SMALLER AREA OF 30-35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
    ANALYSIS POSITION. INVEST 95S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW
    ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
    30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
    AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES AND
    PASSES NORTH OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
    PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    210830Z.//
    NNNN
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