• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0401

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 20 20:36:09 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 202036
    SPC MCD 202035=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0401
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021

    Areas affected...Central Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 202035Z - 202230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Potential exists for a few marginally organized storms
    this afternoon in central Florida. The primary threats will be
    strong/damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. A low-end
    tornado threat exists for storms near the surface boundary. A watch
    is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Weak mid-level height falls and strong surface heating
    in the wake of early convection has contributed to boundary-layer destabilization in central Florida. Current objective analyses show
    around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear is relatively modest, particularly south of the surface boundary in the Orlando vicinity.
    KMLB radar imagery shows loosely organized convection north of Lake
    Okeechobee. Though unclear, these storms may intensify as they
    mature and approach the eastern coast. The relatively greater threat
    for severe weather is likely along the boundary north of the current
    activity. Visible satellite shows a slight increase in cumulus
    development. However, temperatures are only in the upper 70s F here
    on account of greater cloud cover during much of the day. As such,
    storm initiation is less certain. Isolated wind gusts and marginally
    severe hail are possible. Though potential is low, the threat for a
    brief, weak tornado would be maximized with any activity near the
    surface boundary.

    Lack of coverage and the overall marginal threat is likely to
    preclude watch issuance this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t9kkkNSDt8PoM41cossHyrJ9LhcquGSPmSDp7q7bYZat1Zz4LGJpnMWiCEffftPXHz5KH2Yt$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 27478217 27858241 28168249 28488219 28548119 28218033
    27498017 27308053 27228137 27308167 27478217=20

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