• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0400

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 20 12:33:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 201233
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201232=20
    FLZ000-201330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0400
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0732 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021

    Areas affected...central Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 201232Z - 201330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose a risk for isolated marginally
    severe hail through the morning, but a brief tornado and gusty winds
    will also be possible. Overall threat appears somewhat marginal, but
    trends will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Early this morning a stationary front is situated
    across central FL from just south of the Tampa Bay area to south of
    Melbourne. Widely scattered thunderstorms have been on the increase
    during the past hour in response to deep forcing for ascent
    accompanying a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the
    northern Gulf. The low-level response to this feature has been
    modest with the Tampa VWP indicating 20 kt southwesterly flow in the
    1-2 km layer, though some increase in the low-level winds (up to 30
    kt) might occur later this morning. Instability remains marginal due
    to weak mid-level lapse rates with 1000 J/kg MUCAPE supported by
    upper 60s F near-surface dewpoints. Storms still appear slightly
    elevated, but advection of warmer air from the south could
    eventually boost surface temperatures to in excess of 75 F during
    the morning. The gradual warming of the boundary layer and modest
    increase in low-level winds might promote further storm
    intensification. Effective bulk shear around 45 kt will support a
    few supercell structures with marginally severe hail the main
    threat, but as storms transition to surface-based, some threat will
    exist for a brief tornado.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 04/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pRkO9b2xrpTGQi6CDPtN5-vk137t_v72f-JIsnT8w53KlZ0Rt17OFretwtV77viYo4yy_9SH$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 28068064 27858137 27308230 27438270 27928280 28518232
    28758074 28068064=20



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