• Pacific-NW: Surigae R28

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon Apr 19 18:07:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 191800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.28 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 15.1N, 126.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
    CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
    100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
    DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
    SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
    SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
    OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
    HAS AN EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF
    THE MOVEMENT.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
    INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE
    SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
    PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
    GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
    CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
    SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
    OF LOW SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
    INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY
    FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
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