• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0399

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 19 14:15:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 191415
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191415=20
    NCZ000-191645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0399
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0915 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

    Areas affected...Northeastern NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 191415Z - 191645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few stronger storms are possible across northeast North
    Carolina over the next several hours.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast
    SC with a trough extending northward across eastern NC to another
    low near the far eastern NC/VA border. This trough is demarcated
    well by the wind shift across eastern NC. Dewpoints to the east of
    this trough are mainly in the upper 50s and low 60s, with
    temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. These low-level thermodynamic
    conditions sit beneath similarly modest thermodynamic conditions
    aloft, with 500-mb temperatures around -19 deg C and poor lapse
    rates. As such, overall thermodynamic conditions support only modest
    buoyancy.

    Even so, strengthening ascent, resulting from low-level convergence
    along the trough as well as the approach of a mid-level trough and
    attendant jet, coupled with the modest buoyancy is expected to
    foster storm development. The strength of the vertical shear could
    result in stronger storms than the modest buoyancy would otherwise
    suggest, with isolated hail and/or damaging wind gusts possible.
    Overall coverage of any strong storms should be limited, with the
    duration of any such storms also tempered given the lack of stronger
    buoyancy.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vSdQ6_LR9ZEProXjgZxJJN7YhbgfffNq8U2hY7B_uminRO85s4f8xnvOtSVuPZ95jTBaAfpn$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

    LAT...LON 35957699 36497649 36357576 35897545 35177556 34577663
    34807786 35957699=20



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