• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0398

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 19 08:36:56 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 190836
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190836=20
    FLZ000-191100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0398
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0336 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021

    Areas affected...Central Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 190836Z - 191100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat will continue from near the
    Tampa area eastward across the central Florida Peninsula. The threat
    should remain too marginal for weather watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough
    across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A plume of mid-level moisture
    extends from near the shortwave trough east-northeastward across
    central Florida. Thunderstorm development is taking place within
    this plume in a moist airmass situated across the southern and
    central Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints across central Florida
    are generally near 70 F which is contributing to moderate
    instability (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Thunderstorms are expected to
    continue to develop early this morning from near Tampa Bay eastward
    across central Florida, along an east-to-west corridor of enhanced
    low-level convergence. According to the Melbourne, Florida WSR-88D
    VWP, 0-6 km shear is near 40 kt and there is some veering of the
    winds with height in the boundary layer. This will support a couple
    supercells. The stronger rotating storms could produce isolated
    large hail and perhaps a few strong wind gusts.

    ..Broyles/Grams.. 04/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uC0mreU6OlGFR6DR_0Vkt4IhbIVqgtxFqiCj1iMHCmwQPqfp57HRQnA57tNF8ZTxEQAWmfWu$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 27618035 27278098 27028204 27058246 27458266 27858263
    28108210 28418072 27618035=20



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