• Pacific-NW: Surigae R24

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Apr 18 18:15:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 181800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 13.9N, 126.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
    900HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 115KNOTS.
    THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
    INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
    OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
    INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
    SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
    MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
    CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
    DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
    THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
    SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
    ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
    IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
    TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
    CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
    OF DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
    INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY
    AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
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