• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0396

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 18 17:16:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 181716
    SPC MCD 181716=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0396
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1216 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

    Areas affected...East central Florida peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 181716Z - 181945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible
    this afternoon across the Greater Orlando into Space Coast vicinity, particularly closer to 4-6 PM EDT. This may include an isolated
    supercell or two, posing a risk for large hail and locally strong
    surface gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Strong differential surface heating is ongoing along a convectively reinforced surface boundary extending across the
    peninsula, north of Tampa through the Greater Orlando Metropolitan
    area and the Cape Canaveral vicinity. South of this frontal zone,
    where dew points are around 70F, temperatures have warmed into the
    80s. This appears to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE on the
    order of 1500-2000 J/kg, in the presence of strongly sheared
    westerly deep-layer mean flow. The generally unidirectional wind
    profiles include 40-50 kt in the 700-500 mb layer, weakening to
    around 20 kt around the 850 mb layer.=20=20

    This appears focused near the northern periphery of warmer and more
    strongly capping layers aloft, associated with mid/upper subtropical
    ridging, which remain evident in recent ACARS soundings from
    Orlando. However, as near-surface convergence becomes increasingly
    focused across the Orlando into Space Coast vicinity through mid to
    late afternoon, potential for the initiation of isolated to widely
    scattered thunderstorms is expected to increase.

    Latest High-Resolution Rapid Refresh suggests that isolated
    thunderstorm development is possible as early as 18-19Z, but
    sustained thunderstorm development seems more probable a bit later
    this afternoon, aided by increasingly divergent upper flow,
    downstream of a mid-level impulse approaching the Florida Gulf
    coast. If/when this occurs, the environment will be conducive to
    storms capable of producing large hail and locally strong surface

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 04/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sOVZlMqbw1InnZbvOGzRSUz5j4Mv8KIEuBi2klds_BK4QoFPR1OQKgI93iP9J-Pc6SbWw6mz$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 28818171 28928130 28908068 28408060 28228114 28288160
    28488194 28818171=20

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