• Pac-W: ST Surigae R22

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Apr 18 08:30:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 180600
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 13.4N, 127.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
    CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 900HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
    115KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
    DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS
    HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
    INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
    ANALYSES.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
    CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
    DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
    MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
    NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
    UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
    THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE
    SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
    EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
    WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
    PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
    CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
    OF LOW SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
    INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY
    FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
    =
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