• Pacific-NW: Surigae R20

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Apr 17 18:32:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 171800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2102 SURIGAE (2102)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TY SURIGAE IS LOCATED AT 12.6N, 128.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
    IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 895HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
    NEAR THE CENTER ARE 120KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
    ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
    TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
    SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
    OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
    DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
    SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
    NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
    NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
    PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
    CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
    OUTPUTS.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
    INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
    GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
    UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP
    AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
    DATA.
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