• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0395

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 17 20:43:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172043=20
    FLZ000-172245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0395
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0343 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the FL Panhandle and northern FL
    Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 172043Z - 172245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase across the
    northeast Gulf of Mexico and move across portions of the FL
    Panhandle and northwest FL peninsula through this evening. An
    isolated stronger storm may produce strong wind gusts and perhaps
    hail, but a watch is not currently anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
    across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and portions of the FL
    Panhandle/northern FL peninsula in the vicinity of a nearly
    stationary front. Modest warm advection combined with ascent
    associated within the right entrance region of an approaching 300-mb
    speed maxima will contribute to the thunderstorm development, with
    storms moving east across the discussion area through this evening.
    The front should begin to lift slowly north tonight and, despite
    poor mid-level lapse rates, RAP forecast soundings depict MUCAPE
    averaging 500 to locally 1000 J/kg this afternoon/evening. Strong
    westerly mid-level flow will contribute to ample shear for organized
    storms. As storms develop/move east over the next several hours the
    potential will exist for a couple of storms to produce strong
    surface wind gusts and perhaps hail. Any sustained storm in the
    vicinity of the front across the northern peninsula this evening
    would have at least some potential for a tornado given
    modestly-enhanced low-level SRH.

    The expected severe coverage should remain isolated and a watch is
    not anticipated.

    ..Bunting/Dial.. 04/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pN8kU39ZSCLUcRBOSqno6g75oZYsn9bq1de8vmIe_Agwb_nsIQH-oDe-SYGuMBGbm9hO0Oo4$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29388483 29458561 29658604 30238617 30468544 30458379
    30408306 30258196 29568175 29178220 29038328 29388483=20



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