• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0393

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 16 20:09:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162008
    SPC MCD 162008=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0393
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0308 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of the central Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162008Z - 162215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms, posing a risk
    for large hail and locally strong surface gusts, are possible late
    this afternoon, and could impact the Greater Orlando Metropolitan
    area into the Space Coast by 6-7 PM EDT. While a severe weather
    watch is not currently anticipated, trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...At least weak large-scale ascent appears ongoing, in
    response to warm advection along a broad east-west oriented
    lower/mid tropospheric baroclinic across the Florida peninsula.=20
    This appears to be coming focused across central portions of the
    peninsula, perhaps in advance of a subtle mid-level perturbation,
    generally just to the northeast of warmer and more strongly capping
    mid-level air. Beneath this regime, latest mesoanalysis suggests
    that boundary-layer convergence is becoming enhanced northeast/north
    of Tampa and Lakeland, through the Orlando/Kissimmee and Melbourne
    area, where daytime heating appears to be contributing to
    mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg.

    In response to this destabilization and lift, deepening convective
    development appears underway along this corridor (particularly
    currently to the north-northeast of Tampa), and the initiation of at
    least a few storms appears possible through 22-23Z. Although
    low-level flow is generally light and west-southwesterly,
    deeper-layer vertical shear is strong, beneath 40-50 kt westerly
    flow around the 500 mb level. This should contribute to
    organization of sustained thunderstorm development, with the
    evolution of an isolated supercell structure or two possible.=20
    Forecast soundings are suggestive that this activity could pose a
    risk for large hail, and perhaps localized strong surface gusts,
    before diminishing by early this evening.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 04/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!quhmJHLkHP-ib8ENJjXhEcmpfrXd_qLbtQuv77lgTgFE7gonbJ1fH4EXvLUpvNHGLZ24OT4d$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 28968217 28998102 28108048 28278229 28968217=20

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