• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0392

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 16 08:30:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 160830
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160830=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-161100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0392
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0330 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 160830Z - 161100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong wind gusts potential
    will exist early this morning across parts of southern Louisiana.
    The threat is expected to remain localized and weather watch
    issuance appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Over the last few hours, a small cluster of strong
    thunderstorms has developed in the Sabine River Valley. This cluster
    is being supported by large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough
    currently moving through the southern Plains. A short line segment
    at the western end of the cluster appears to to be an organized
    supercell but elevated in nature. This storm will continue to move
    eastward along a gradient of instability, with the RAP analyzing
    MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. This combined with about 70 kt
    of westerly flow in the mid-levels will support an isolated severe
    threat over the next few hours. Large hail and strong wind gusts
    will be possible. Storm coverage is expected to remain relatively
    isolated. For this reason, weather watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Broyles/Grams.. 04/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rM0wwSNDjl-_H_rKKX_VMn8EwmJlBV0J_5992KFklXl-dc3RfufoB6uRbuC2Z5Oc328V9csW$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 31089330 31049361 30879385 30719395 30539401 30239390
    30159374 30019327 29889279 29799209 29799163 29989143
    30229136 30479139 30709166 30969231 31069294 31089330=20



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