• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0391

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 15 21:55:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152155
    SPC MCD 152155=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0391
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

    Areas affected...southeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 152155Z - 160030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of cells producing large hail may persist for a
    few hours as it moves from central into southeast Texas. Watch
    chances downstream will depend on storm coverage/intensity trends.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived cell just northeast of Austin TX as of
    21:55Z continues to show severe hail potential. This cell is located
    within the theta-e gradient just off the surface, and is utilizing
    elevated instability on the order of 1500 J/kg. Given the
    southeastward motion due to moderate westerlies aloft and rightward
    propagation on the southern end of the cluster, this storm is in an
    environment of favorable shear and storm relative inflow. While
    gusty winds may also occur, damaging hail is the most likely threat.

    Very little change environmentally is forecast over the next several
    hours, suggesting a status-quo scenario. Flow at 850 mb may be
    slightly weaker farther east.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rR3JY0A4MyDxlsqA_qPdPF1XsqYKoX6QJotzWRG8Cx6bdnGIRuZTQL9RjjN0wzAUoG_XmmP5$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31069725 30139509 29729486 29459487 29229515 29169547
    30089721 30369757 30649738 30729730 31069725=20

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