Mesoscale Discussion 0391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021
Areas affected...southeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 152155Z - 160030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of cells producing large hail may persist for a
few hours as it moves from central into southeast Texas. Watch
chances downstream will depend on storm coverage/intensity trends.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived cell just northeast of Austin TX as of
21:55Z continues to show severe hail potential. This cell is located
within the theta-e gradient just off the surface, and is utilizing
elevated instability on the order of 1500 J/kg. Given the
southeastward motion due to moderate westerlies aloft and rightward
propagation on the southern end of the cluster, this storm is in an
environment of favorable shear and storm relative inflow. While
gusty winds may also occur, damaging hail is the most likely threat.
Very little change environmentally is forecast over the next several
hours, suggesting a status-quo scenario. Flow at 850 mb may be
slightly weaker farther east.
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