• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0389

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 15 17:25:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151725
    SPC MCD 151724=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0389
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...

    Valid 151724Z - 151930Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96

    SUMMARY...Local risk for large hail continues.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated strong/severe storms
    continuing across parts of central Texas, on the southern fringe of
    an expanding area of convection across portions of western and
    northern Texas and into southwestern Oklahoma. While instability
    diminishes with northward extent -- and thus severe risk does, as
    well -- ample instability over central Texas in tandem with
    moderately strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer will
    continue to support risk for large hail locally, with
    elevated/rotating storms.

    With time, several CAMs suggest that storms will continue moving eastward/northeastward out of the existing watch. While storms
    moving northeastward appear to be of less concern, greater CAPE east
    of the existing watch could permit an increase in local hail risk
    into the Hill Country and vicinity. However, it appears at this
    time that risk would likely remain very isolated, casting
    uncertainty on the need for a possible/downstream WW.

    ..Goss.. 04/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rfw3FXoNiZiqt1cf_BSroY0jPBGY9Y6ImvaEgxIAnwALmJmrP9Q1nOJkt5UGL7rICbOVi6CW$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 30489964 30819982 31499963 31689858 31539671 30949660
    30089693 30149849 30489964=20

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