Mesoscale Discussion 0389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021
Areas affected...portions of central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...
Valid 151724Z - 151930Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96
SUMMARY...Local risk for large hail continues.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated strong/severe storms
continuing across parts of central Texas, on the southern fringe of
an expanding area of convection across portions of western and
northern Texas and into southwestern Oklahoma. While instability
diminishes with northward extent -- and thus severe risk does, as
well -- ample instability over central Texas in tandem with
moderately strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer will
continue to support risk for large hail locally, with
With time, several CAMs suggest that storms will continue moving eastward/northeastward out of the existing watch. While storms
moving northeastward appear to be of less concern, greater CAPE east
of the existing watch could permit an increase in local hail risk
into the Hill Country and vicinity. However, it appears at this
time that risk would likely remain very isolated, casting
uncertainty on the need for a possible/downstream WW.
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at email@example.com and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1618507677-18854-12565--