• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0387

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 15 13:18:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151318
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151317=20
    TXZ000-151545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0387
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0817 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest and South-central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 151317Z - 151545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for large hail will likely increase over the
    next few hours as cells develop across southwest Texas. Weather
    watch issuance may need to be considered.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a couple of isolated
    storms ongoing just to the east of Del Rio. These storms are
    developing in a warm advection regime where low-level convergence is
    maximized. The storms are located along the northern edge of
    moderate instability and will move eastward along the instability
    gradient over the next few hours. MLCAPE is estimated to be in the
    1500 to 2500 J/kg range across much of southwest Texas. The storms
    will remain elevated due to a strong capping inversion that is
    present. RAP forecast soundings across southwest Texas this morning
    show effective shear near 60 kt with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5
    C/km. This environment should be favorable for supercells with large
    hail. As the storms become more organized this morning, the
    possibility for hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will
    exist.

    ..Broyles/Thompson.. 04/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ph6WgkesJBRJUtczzVBFZai39bIzC-qKCCUDRxsiIaqTofbESjAYur4_JWcACZ1uC2qZNgap$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29080077 28840040 28639964 28649890 28849825 29269792
    29829791 30349827 30629882 30610007 30420099 30110116
    29730115 29300089 29080077=20



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