• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0386

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 15 00:02:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 150002
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150001=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-150200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0386
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0701 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

    Areas affected...northeast North Carolina into far southeast
    Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 150001Z - 150200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail or wind is possible for another 1-2
    hours east of a small cluster of storms along the Virginia/North
    Carolina border. Due to small areal and temporal threat, no watch is
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of cells along the eastern NC/VA border is
    currently situated within the surface theta-e axis, traveling east
    along a boundary and ahead of a surface low. The environment in the
    immediate vicinity of these storms is favorable for severe weather,
    with good overall hodograph length, and over 200 m2/s2 effective
    SRH.

    A cooler air mass currently resides over eastern NC and southeast
    VA, or about 50 miles downstream of these storms as of 00Z. While a
    few reports of damaging wind or hail are possible in the short term,
    it is expected that these storms will weaken after 01Z as they
    encounter the less unstable air.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vDmTUt-5993YRWnmbC4BxGMcMzYvqRZKuaFomeVnTNYzFvFXuFWPsIIN8ld3umPs7wgfnItW$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 36807718 36647619 36407579 36197586 35897581 35747613
    35817656 36277762 36477771 36717748 36807718=20



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