• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0385

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 14 22:27:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142227
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142227=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-150030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0385
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0527 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Louisiana and Texas Coastline

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...

    Valid 142227Z - 150030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A limited threat for severe storms will remain in place
    for a couple more hours. Large hail would be the primary threat for
    any storms that manage to develop.

    DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is currently meandering along the
    east-TX coastline, with temperatures in the 80s F and dewpoints
    exceeding 70 F ahead of the front. Steep (8+ C/km) mid-level lapse
    rates overspreading the warm, moist low-level airmass have promoted
    3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE (per latest Mesoanalysis and RAP forecast
    soundings). Despite the favorable thermodynamic environment in
    place, along with 35+ kts of effective bulk shear, very limited
    deep-layer ascent has precluded a more robust severe threat thus
    far. Given that afternoon peak heating is underway, it appears that
    low-level lift due to diurnal mixing is insufficient for promoting
    organized storms/a severe threat. Some upper support is evident via
    the eastward propagation of a small mid-level impulse across
    northwest TX, however, it is unclear if the upper support will
    influence an uptick in convective development across southeast
    Texas.

    Should storms manage to develop and mature in close proximity to the
    front, especially towards the BEA/VCT vicinity, large hail would
    become a concern given the steep lapse rates in place. Conditions
    will continue to be monitored for more rigorous convective
    development.

    ..Squitieri.. 04/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rKVFeA6XDTyr46r1iRtD_jR4BO9zdGd1rExWG2Zq3R3RweJBNRYEXI42RWuPgs2iPf5yOZoD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 27839716 28249789 28669810 29029778 29489684 30029529
    30209403 30029377 29579389 28989501 28549588 27839716=20



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