Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021
Areas affected...northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 142149Z - 142345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A set of splitting cells may continue to pose a damaging
hail risk over the next 1-2 hours, with a general weakening trend
expected as they move northeastward this evening. A watch is not
expected due to limited coverage.
DISCUSSION...Splitting cells exist over Taylor and Jones counties as
of 21:45Z, with a very large hail core noted earlier on the southern/right-moving cell. These cells are located within the
elevated MUCAPE plume, with weak warm advection occurring around 850
mb aiding lift.
The theta-e gradient at 850 mb is forecast to remain
quasistationary, with little increase in advection through evening.
The strong deep-layer effective shear may allow these cells to
persist in severe fashion for a row or two of counties east of their
current location. However, a weakening trend is anticipated after
00Z as they move farther away from the instability axis.
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