• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0384

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 14 21:49:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142149
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142149=20
    TXZ000-142345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0384
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0449 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

    Areas affected...northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142149Z - 142345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A set of splitting cells may continue to pose a damaging
    hail risk over the next 1-2 hours, with a general weakening trend
    expected as they move northeastward this evening. A watch is not
    expected due to limited coverage.

    DISCUSSION...Splitting cells exist over Taylor and Jones counties as
    of 21:45Z, with a very large hail core noted earlier on the southern/right-moving cell. These cells are located within the
    elevated MUCAPE plume, with weak warm advection occurring around 850
    mb aiding lift.

    The theta-e gradient at 850 mb is forecast to remain
    quasistationary, with little increase in advection through evening.
    The strong deep-layer effective shear may allow these cells to
    persist in severe fashion for a row or two of counties east of their
    current location. However, a weakening trend is anticipated after
    00Z as they move farther away from the instability axis.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 04/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rR8XbkIX3uLOjB1iApM-WIdTcBYHQf4cviqj_wTOltwudPFmDWW6p4UvFGaQ0JpKoztEYmoj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32299848 32139938 32249979 32539994 32869996 33639924
    33899823 33669774 33249755 32929758 32559766 32299848=20



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