• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0383

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 14 20:24:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142024
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142024=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-142230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0383
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southern Virginia and northern North
    Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142024Z - 142230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development is possible near the
    central Virginia and North Carolina state border vicinity by 7-8 PM
    EDT, with the potential for this activity to organize and pose a
    risk for small hail and strong surface gusts. It still appears that
    the severe weather threat will remain isolated and marginal enough
    that a severe weather watch will not be required. However, trends
    will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Ahead of a cold front approaching the southern
    Appalachians, low-level moisture is rather modest across the
    Carolina Piedmont into the Blue Ridge. But this has allowed for
    seasonably strong surface heating and deep boundary-layer mixing.=20 Mixed-layer CAPE appears on the order of 250 J/kg, with somewhat
    larger CAPE for most unstable surface parcels across much of the
    Piedmont, and as far west as the Blue Ridge.=20=20

    This destabilization has been accompanied by deepening convective
    development north of Hickory into areas near/northwest of
    Greensboro, which appears to be supported by lift associated with
    low-level warm advection, on the northeastern periphery of the more
    strongly heated/deeply-mixed air mass. Within 30-40 kt westerly
    deep-layer ambient mean flow, in advance of the base of mid-level
    troughing to the south of the broad mid-level low slowly turning
    southeast of the upper Great Lakes region, this forcing and
    associated convective development will continue to develop eastward
    through early evening.

    As convection begins to encounter better low-level moisture return
    (including mid 50s to near 60F surface dew points) near the
    Virginia/North Carolina state border vicinity, north of Raleigh
    through the Roanoke Rapids area, there appears increasing potential
    for substantive intensification by 15/00Z, if not before. CAPE of
    500-1000 J/kg is possible across at least a localized area, with
    thermodynamic profiles becoming increasing conducive to
    thunderstorms. Coinciding with strengthening southwesterly flow
    near the 850 mb level to 30+ kt, wind profiles may support the
    evolution of a supercell structure or two, with the potential to
    produce small hail and a few strong surface gusts.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o_JLEqiawyzMCqLXpZOfvDL5xS-R1grara_dAHMo9kzw5Pbt6aakC-Tx7Fg4m2kCHySndDxk$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36068025 36628030 37297837 37027697 36297686 36027856
    36068025=20



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