• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0382

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 14 17:44:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141744
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141743=20
    TXZ000-141945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0382
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the Texas Coastal Plain

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141743Z - 141945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm development over the next couple of hours will be
    accompanied by some increase in risk for large hail and locally
    strong/damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. A WW may be
    required.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across
    western portions of the Texas Coastal Plain/eastern fringes of the
    Hill Country, and then westward into the Edwards Plateau.=20
    Meanwhile, a sea-breeze boundary has pushed into coastal counties,
    with high theta-e marine air along and east of this boundary.

    Though capping (near 700 mb) remains established across the area,
    continued heating/mixing of the boundary layer will weaken the cap
    locally -- particularly near the aforementioned surface boundaries
    where ascent is locally maximized. With steep lapse rates overlying
    this region above the capping layer, the destabilizing environment
    -- represented by mixed-layer CAPE values now in excess of 2500 J/kg
    across the region per RUC-based objective analyses -- combined with
    the weakening cap will support local/robust updraft development.

    While deep-layer shear is not excessive, partially owing to modest
    low-level flow, ample (around 30 kt) mid-level west-southwesterlies
    are contributing to shear sufficient for multicell organization, and
    even some mid-level updraft rotation. As such, potential for hail
    and/or locally strong outflow winds will be possible with a few of
    the strongest storms. We will continue to monitor development, for
    signs that convective development/coverage may warrant WW issuance.

    ..Goss/Thompson.. 04/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qtHLLmwSHGv7lOY5CJLhEc4wDHSz70lADpOugjTgFB2oKFYJQQuX6PxVvoA8pMOWpEwB8IIu$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29279811 29559761 29829683 29909598 30189492 29659475
    28749616 28169709 28299783 28449828 28839839 29279811=20



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