• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0381

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 14 10:17:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141017
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141017=20
    LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-141245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0381
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0517 AM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

    Areas affected...East Texas/WEstern and Central Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141017Z - 141245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated large-hail threat will continue across parts
    of east Texas and Louisiana early this morning. Weather watch
    issuance will not be issued at this time but convective trends will
    continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered
    thunderstorms ongoing from parts of southeast Texas northeastward
    into western and central Louisiana. Convective coverage has recently
    increased in the Sabine River Valley in a regime of warm advection.
    The storms are developing along the northeastward edge of a moist
    and unstable airmass. The RAP is analyzing MUCAPE in the 1000 to
    2000 J/kg across southeast Texas and western Louisiana. In addition,
    RAP forecast soundings in this area early this morning have
    effective shear near 40 kt and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.0 C/km.
    This should be enough for an isolated large-hail threat with
    supercells that develop. The greatest potential for hail may be
    across southeast Texas where mid-level lapse rates are steeper and
    instability is greater than in areas further northeast.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 04/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ty-H1Rbf56INVaiPYwgiPLzwrS-cdFVw9rbWMMiXB1KQraQWld5xlbItF4XT8qUmCg79v3hZ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 32099292 32079422 31889482 31559515 31089541 30519562
    30079556 29809529 29779468 30049365 30029239 30049190
    30539155 31129158 31829209 32099292=20



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