• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0380

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 13 21:37:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132137
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132137=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-140000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0380
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0437 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western into northern Texas and far
    southern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132137Z - 140000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple severe hailstones may result from the stronger
    updrafts that manage to mature. The severe threat is expected to
    remain sparse, and a WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Deep-layer ascent attributed to a glancing mid-level
    impulse across the TX panhandle has encouraged scattered
    thunderstorm development across western into northern TX and far
    southwest OK. These elevated storms are ingesting CAPE contained
    within the 700-200 mb layer, where over 40 kts of effective bulk
    shear is present. However, despite the adequate deep shear for storm organization, the elevated 500+ J/kg MUCAPE is represented by a
    tall, skinny vertical profile despite the 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
    rates present. As such, updrafts, while occasionally organized, are
    not expected to become particularly robust. Small hail may accompany
    the stronger updrafts, but only the strongest, longest lasting
    updrafts have an appreciable chance at producing at/greater than 1
    inch diameter hailstones. Given the expected sparse nature of the
    severe hail coverage, a WW issuance appears unlikely.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uL9H7B5Xclv-Tt7rjAO44ga6JXL3viSIuzULmCqccHxOmWpkFIkLxyxPleSrB1rt0Vg8-TL4$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32570306 33590151 34559960 34719905 34709818 34389789
    33899802 33399877 32609980 31840044 31420125 31330185
    31580244 31910289 32570306=20



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