• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0379

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 13 20:44:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132043=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-132245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0379
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0343 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

    Areas affected...East-central Texas and west-central Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132043Z - 132245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
    as a storm or two develops in east-central Texas. The threat will be
    limited by weak upper-level forcing and should subside as surface
    heating ceases. No watch is anticipated this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus have developed along the stalled front
    near OCH. While low to mid 80s F temperatures and upper 60s to low
    70s F dewpoints have supported around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, residual
    capping around 700 mb has kept updraft development/maturation muted
    thus far. Continued heating may support a diurnally-driven threat
    for large hail and damaging wind gusts, given 35 kts of effective
    shear and steep low-level lapse rates. Storm coverage will likely
    remain isolated on account weak upper-level forcing as well as
    eventual loss of surface heating after sunset. No watch is
    anticipated for this activity.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o5-BVdiq0EoNpcKP2dDuqKMJWf9Z0NuxyX109GzrQufXT6R3Y3NuO8UjCxts2iEQIPzb8Ynj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 31469581 31809548 32019479 32219394 32189351 31769340
    31349425 31179526 31229566 31469581=20



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