• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0375

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 13 03:42:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130341
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130341=20
    TXZ000-130545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0375
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1041 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of west Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 130341Z - 130545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are increasing across the Big
    Country of west Texas. Some hail threat will be noted with this
    activity, but a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Weak low-level warm advection, atop a cooler post
    frontal boundary layer, appears to be the primary forcing mechanism
    for recent increase in elevated convection across the Big Country of
    west TX. Scattered strong storms are expanding in areal coverage
    from Taylor to Stephens County. This activity is likely producing at
    least some hail, possibly in excess of one inch at times. Latest
    satellite imagery suggests new updrafts are deepening as far west as
    eastern Mitchell County and lightning will likely be observed soon
    with these updrafts. Latest thinking is a broadening corridor of
    elevated convection will stretch from north of I-20 between MAF-ABI,
    extending east-northeast toward Young/Jack County over the next few
    hours. While isolated one-inch type stones may be noted at times, intensity/coverage of these storms should not warrant a severe
    thunderstorm watch.

    ..Darrow/Grams.. 04/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rnHdJztu1yaKnw93AQbrIC4GCKhjBGGAHzbIZHilyI5NIYbubvhmcfAXNzKZWlYjn1v_pmhC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32760089 33439852 32729816 32249933 32030092 32760089=20



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