• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0374

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 13 02:27:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130227
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130226=20
    TXZ000-130330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0374
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0926 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

    Valid 130226Z - 130330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A localized severe hail threat may continue with existing
    storms for a couple more hours. A localized extension of Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch #093 may be needed if storms maintain their
    intensity.

    DISCUSSION...Two discrete supercells have initiated along the
    trailing portion of a near-stationary cold front across Sutton and
    Kimble Counties in southwest Texas. Latest MRMS mosaic radar data
    shows 50+ dBZ cores reaching 35 kft, with MESH values nearing 2.0
    inch diameters. Despite the intensity of the ongoing storms,
    convective inhibition is gradually increasing in the midst of
    nocturnal cooling. As such, these storms are not expected to be
    particularly long-lived. Still, storms may continue for another hour
    or so while producing severe hail given the presence of 9+ C/km
    700-500 mb lapse rates (per 00Z DRT observed sounding) and resultant
    1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE (when modified to match the latest KJCT METAR observations, representative of the storm-relative environment). A
    2.0 inch stone also cannot be completely ruled out. A localized
    extension of WW 093 could be necessary should the storms maintain
    intensity through 03Z.

    ..Squitieri.. 04/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o1rWFakcoh6FJGRUwRt0qPlTwPsiK3MyiGT27f5W6pJyqRaRIbvy5kTGvnfUP-xpQAY0rxZS$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29680188 30900087 31399988 31529933 31369865 31059814
    30659818 30359885 29829956 29440003 29120029 28960070
    29680188=20



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