• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0373

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 12 23:44:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122344
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122343=20
    TXZ000-130115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0373
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0643 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southwest into central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

    Valid 122343Z - 130115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch #093. Large hail will be the dominant threat over the next few
    hours, with up to 3 inch stones possible with the strongest storms.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has recently been able to initiate off of
    the near-stationary cold front over the past couple of hours, where
    low-level convergence is strongest and where a localized minimum in
    MLCINH has been noted. The 20Z DRT observed sounding shows that the
    8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates plume has advected far enough east,
    over the front to support ample buoyancy above the convective
    inhibition layer around 850 mb, with the latest RAP PFCs showing
    2000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. While storms have had a history of
    becoming supercellular immediately after initiation, with up to 2.75
    inch hail observed, the updrafts have tended to dissipate within an
    hour of initiation, suggesting that convective inhibition may
    constrain the severe threat to storms closest to the front.=20

    Nonetheless, updrafts that continue to develop near the front and
    mature will have the tendency to produce large hail, with 2-3 inch
    stones likely with the more intense storms. The severe threat is
    expected to gradually wane after sunset, as the loss of daytime
    heating will reduce the amount of lift near the front.

    ..Squitieri.. 04/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rse5bhalWxb9mnoyvJRy6F5vncxb7sDvsJYfs4d6qLeJ2qsbRNtmPv4gMdgrI8ki0TWf7rgM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29650195 30960101 31579969 31639865 31289807 30799796
    30129863 29559962 29080023 28990088 29650195=20



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