• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0372

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 12 20:00:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122000
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122000=20
    TXZ000-122200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0372
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0300 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

    Areas affected...Edwards Plateau

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 122000Z - 122200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms are probable within
    the Edwards Plateau this afternoon and early evening. Storms will be
    capable of large hail, some greater than 2 inches, and isolated
    severe wind gusts. A watch will likely be needed for this activity.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures along and just ahead of the slowing cold
    front within the Edwards Plateau have reached the mid to upper 80s
    F. A region of cumulus clouds has developed in the Sonora vicinity
    where low 60s F dewpoints reside. Forecast guidance has been a bit
    slow with warming and moistening of the boundary layer. This has led
    to a later initiation in CAM guidance than current observations
    would indicate. At present, thunderstorm initiation could occur as
    early as 4 PM CDT with increasing likelihood thereafter. Steep
    mid-level lapse rates and long, straight hodographs will support
    splitting supercells capable of large to very large (2+ inches)
    hail. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur. Given weak
    low-level convergence and subtle mid-level height rises later today,
    storm coverage should remain widely scattered with the strongest
    activity decreasing sharply after sunset.

    Additional development of storms is likely within the Sierra del
    Burro Mountains. This activity may slide across the U.S. border
    later in the afternoon and carry a similar threat for very large
    hail and isolated severe gusts. More inhibition will exist ahead of
    these storms and how far they can progress into Texas is uncertain.

    A watch is likely this afternoon within the Edwards Plateau given
    the magnitude of the hail threat.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rlaYIh0KNcwy7sIeXvcdHC-OcVj8i4YDKKRPKdnJcfDUvFmbNNbcv9Zu6YKSYkF1tHrPL_G8$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29720178 30800108 31540058 31939978 31969902 31409865
    30309933 29280106 29720178=20



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