• Indian-S: TC Seroja W029F

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Apr 11 18:08:00 2021
    WTXS31 PGTW 111500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 029//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 029
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    111200Z --- NEAR 28.3S 114.4E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
    POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
    SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 28.3S 114.4E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    120000Z --- 32.4S 119.8E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    121200Z --- 36.2S 126.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
    REMARKS:
    111500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3S 115.8E.
    11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
    NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
    SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED 10 NM EYE FEATURE JUST
    CROSSING THE SHORELINE NEAR PORT GREGORY, AUSTRALIA AT THE 111200Z
    HOUR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION, THE EIR EYE FEATURE AND
    A WELL-DEFINED RADAR EYE COMBINED TO LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
    INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS WITH
    HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE OF MULTI-
    AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM PGTW AND
    APRF, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SURFACE PRESSURE READINGS NEAR 976 MB
    FROM NEARBY OBSERVATION SITES WHICH SUPPORT AN INTENSITY IN THE 65-
    70 KNOT RANGE. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 65 KTS AT THE GERALDTON AIRPORT
    PROVIDES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 26S IS
    BEING STEERED RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE GRADIENT
    BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-
    LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEAST OVER
    INLAND AUSTRALIA IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
    SHEAR AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. THE SIMULTANEOUS DEVELOPMENT OF DRY
    AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THERMAL ADVECTION WILL SIGNAL THE COMMENCEMENT
    OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, WITH
    FULL TRANSITION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 24, LIKELY BY TAU 18,
    ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
    VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
    TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
    WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
    SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
    28 FEET.//
    NNNN
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