• Pacific-S: TC28P W004 Fin

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Apr 11 18:08:00 2021
    WTPS31 PGTW 111500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 004//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 004
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    111200Z --- NEAR 27.5S 170.7E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 170.7E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    120000Z --- 29.9S 172.9E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
    REMARKS:
    111500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 171.2E.
    11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    409 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
    AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 28P HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
    WEAKENED, WITH THE LOWER LEVELS DECOUPLING AND LAGGING BEHIND THE
    UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES. AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A PARTIAL 111013Z
    ASCAT-B PASS LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE SAME
    ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 35-40KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE
    WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE QUICKLY WEAKENING CIRCULATION. IN
    CONJUNCTION WITH A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS)
    AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS), CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
    INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 28P IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
    PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE EAST, BUT FORWARD SPEED HAS
    SLOWED AS IT DECOUPLES FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM
    MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 35 KNOTS AND
    SSTS WILL COOL TO LESS THAN 25C, LEADING TO RAPID DISSIPATION BELOW
    WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
    BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
    CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
    WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET.//
    NNNN
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