• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0370

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 11 20:54:42 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112054
    SPC MCD 112054=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0370
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0354 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Virginia...Maryland...southern

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112054Z - 112300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms may develop
    through late afternoon/early evening, primarily across parts of
    northern Virginia and central Maryland into southern Pennsylvania.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has struggled to deepen this afternoon
    near/just ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, owing to factors
    such as limited boundary layer moisture and weak convergence owing
    to veered near-surface winds within the pre-frontal warm sector.
    While surface dewpoints continue to drop coincident with ample
    boundary layer mixing, a recent modest increase in convergence has
    been noted in vicinity of the front and near/just east of the Blue
    Ridge along with increasing cumuliform development.=20

    Additional development and convective intensification is still
    plausible through the late afternoon/early evening, particularly
    within a corridor across northern Virginia/DC vicinity/central
    Maryland into south-central Pennsylvania where low-level convergence
    should maximize in vicinity of surface low/triple point. Where
    thunderstorms are able to develop and sustain, a warm and well-mixed
    boundary layer would support the possibility of some strong/locally
    damaging wind gusts, aside from the possibility of some hail.

    ..Guyer/Thompson.. 04/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uURxCDvHlnLJIh2KrWrbGBM5aNToclBm0QnuJDtW50BTF9dg_yJqKVPRGeqEBQMTVbwshyp6$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40707728 40537652 40027590 39337606 38087714 38137818
    38467834 39257810 40407794 40707728=20

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