• Pacific-S: TC28P W003

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Apr 11 09:47:00 2021
    WTPS31 PGTW 110900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 003//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 003
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    110600Z --- NEAR 26.1S 169.2E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S 169.2E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    111800Z --- 28.3S 171.4E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    120600Z --- 30.3S 173.6E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
    REMARKS:
    110900Z POSITION NEAR 26.6S 169.7E.
    11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    294 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
    AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 28P HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT AND
    SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH MODERATE CONVECTIVE BANDS
    WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100520Z
    SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THAT WHILE THE MSI INDICATED A
    SYMMETRIC CORE, IT IS VERY ASYMMETRIC, WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE
    BANDING LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH
    ONLY SHALLOW BANDS TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE MICROWAVE DATA
    ALSO REVEALED A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED EYE-LIKE FEATURE WHICH LENT
    HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
    HELD AT 40 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
    THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON A
    PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS WHICH REVEALED SOME 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS). TC 28P IS EXPECTED
    TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
    FORECAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR. THE SYSTEM
    IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
    AND MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C, THOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WEAKENING FOR THE PRESENT. OVER THE
    NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE
    TO ABOVE 35 KTS, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MOVEMENT OVER PROGRESSIVELY
    COOLER WATERS, WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE TC 28P
    NO LATER THAN TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL
    AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
    AT 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
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