• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0365

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 11 09:28:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110928
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110927=20
    FLZ000-111200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0365
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0427 AM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 110927Z - 111200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will be possible across the northern
    Florida Peninsula over the next few hours. Weather watch issuance
    will need to be considered as cells gradually increase in coverage.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows 1009 mb low over the
    eastern Florida Peninsula. A moist airmass is located across much of
    the Florida Peninsula where surface dewpoints range from the mid 70s
    F in south Florida to the upper 50s F in north-central Florida.
    Thunderstorms have been developing in the northeast Gulf of Mexico
    in response to warm advection. Additional elevated storms are
    ongoing across the northern Florida Peninsula. The RAP shows
    effective shear in the 35 to 45 kt range over land but near 50 kt
    over the water where the CAPE is closer to surface-based. The RAP is
    also showing mid-level lapse rate near 7.5 C/km across north-central
    Florida. This environment should support isolated large hail with
    the stronger rotating storms. The hail threat may gradually increase
    as storm coverage expands over the next few hours.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 04/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pZ6Q8JmA67JTUEKISzbGm2g036HHWHEclb4pwN2BhwcgwqndrjEWvGNJe1BncZVGI4RHzrHN$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30078204 29818125 29438098 28998081 28638083 28458100
    28308232 29178322 29708394 29958407 30208394 30268332
    30078204=20



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