• Pacific-SW: TC28P W001

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Apr 10 18:26:00 2021
    WTPS31 PGTW 102100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    101800Z --- NEAR 23.4S 167.2E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
    SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 167.2E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    110600Z --- 26.0S 169.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    111800Z --- 28.4S 171.6E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
    REMARKS:
    102100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 167.7E.
    10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28P (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED
    APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
    INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WELL-ORGANIZED CORE CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING. EARLIER RADAR
    IMAGERY FROM NEW CALEDONIA HAD SHOWN AN EYE FEATURE AND CURRENT
    RADAR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
    WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DESPITE THE SYSTEM'S
    HYBRID NATURE AND LOCATION WITHIN FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
    AND PERSISTENT LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    (VWS), TC 28P WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
    SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST, EAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS AS
    INDICATED ON A 101848Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS FROM NOUMEA (91592) AT 10/1500Z ALONG THE NORTHERN
    FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WERE NNW AT 35 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP VALUE OF
    999MB. ADDITIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LA TONTOUTA (91590) FROM 10/1330-1400Z INDICATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 48 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP
    NEAR 998MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SIGNATURE IN EIR, DVORAK INTENSITY
    ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS). THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY IS ASSESSED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 35
    KNOTS, WHICH IS BETTER ALIGNED WITH SURFACE WIND AND SLP REPORTS. TC
    28P IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS
    SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
    SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. VWS IS
    EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24, WHICH WILL PRODUCE
    STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 24. NUMERICAL
    MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
    AT TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
    FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 10
    FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
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