• Indian-S: TC Seroja W026

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Apr 10 18:26:00 2021
    WTXS31 PGTW 102100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 026//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 026
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    101800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 109.5E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 109.5E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    110600Z --- 25.5S 112.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    111800Z --- 29.5S 116.8E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 34 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    120600Z --- 33.7S 123.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
    REMARKS:
    102100Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 110.2E.
    10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    255NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
    IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATED CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
    ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 101705Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A
    SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURRROUNDING A 35NM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH
    DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IMAGE
    ALONG WITH THE 37GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
    CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON
    DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77
    KNOTS). TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
    FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW POLEWARD OF A
    DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
    SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 12 AND
    WILL QUICKLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
    THE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN
    STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS (25-35 KNOTS) AND
    TRACKS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
    AT 101800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z
    AND 112100Z.//
    NNNN
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