• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0363

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 10 21:35:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102135
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102135=20
    SCZ000-NCZ000-102330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0363
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0435 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

    Areas affected...parts of South Carolina into North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 102135Z - 102330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An uptick in storm coverage and intensity is possible over
    the next few hours, but the risk appears too low for watch
    consideration.

    DISCUSSION...An embedded lead wave is currently moving across
    northern GA and into the western Carolinas, with a concentration of
    shallow convection along the GA/SC border. Surface analysis shows
    temperatures in the 70s F ahead of this feature, with low 60s F
    dewpoints resulting in around 500 J/kg SBCAPE. Little lightning has
    been noted as of late, due to relatively warm midlevel temperatures
    and thus shallow nature of the convection.

    Effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 exists over the western Carolinas,
    along with 50 kt effective bulk shear. This may support weakly
    rotating storms over the next few hours, before the boundary layer
    stabilizes.

    ..Jewell.. 04/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o0XOT3naTcmQ3fRN2-3L81TPm9ICAjRZ4R5AtwWlFBthFFQig6Nlhhv19Ki2iqbS_9IjTQYa$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 34378009 33968062 33768118 33828169 33998235 34478263
    35068241 35578190 35808127 35928063 35778000 35317973
    34787992 34378009=20



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