• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0362

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 10 19:14:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101913
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101913=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-102115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0362
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0213 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

    Areas affected...southeastern Georgia and northern Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101913Z - 102115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of stronger storms withing an evolving convective
    band may produce locally gusty winds or a brief tornado. WW
    issuance is not expected at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an uptick in the intensity of
    the ongoing convective band moving across northern Florida/southern
    Georgia. This has occurred as diurnal heating of the modestly moist
    boundary layer has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values up into the 500 to
    1000 J/kg range ahead of the band, and west of the now inland
    sea-breeze boundary.

    With storms moving east-northeastward at roughly 35 kt, and a mixed
    sub-cloud layer, gusty winds can be expected within the band of
    storms. A stronger gust or two -- possibly approaching severe
    levels, cannot be ruled out; nor can a brief QLCS-type spin-up, as
    storms reach peak intensity over the next 1-2 hours. Interaction of
    this band of storms with the sea-breeze front may support a
    further/brief uptick in convective intensity, before storms begin
    moving offshore later this afternoon.

    ..Goss/Thompson.. 04/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rqfPl1XTp_NRNTbe3iUftkus1k6C7Ypb7vkxzk0GNOIR92pblFw21ulaloGBRJEd_Wile4k7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 31268260 31168224 31018197 30308160 29548139 28798202
    28798248 28918287 29158308 29928293 30238302 31288274
    31268260=20



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