• Indian-S: TC Seroja W024

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Apr 10 10:39:00 2021
    WTXS31 PGTW 100900
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 024//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 024
    02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    100600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 108.2E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 108.2E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    101800Z --- 22.5S 109.5E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    110600Z --- 25.4S 112.0E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    111800Z --- 29.2S 116.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    120600Z --- 33.6S 122.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    EXTRATROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
    REMARKS:
    100900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 108.5E.
    10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340
    NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
    AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WRAPPING
    INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE
    PAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN HINTS OF DEVELOPING A SMALL
    INFRARED EYE, THOUGH IT HAS YET TO FORM FOR LONGER THAN AN HOUR. A
    100720Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A LARGE AND VERY
    SYMMETRICAL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO AN
    UPDATED INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60
    KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY
    DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW
    AND APRF AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.1 (47 KTS). A 100530Z KNES FIX
    OBTAINED A T4.5 (77 KTS) ESTIMATE BASED ON THE TRANSIENT EYE AT THAT
    MOMENT IN TIME. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    CONSISTING OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
    (28C) SSTS. THE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS REVEALS 20 KNOTS OF SHEAR,
    HOWEVER BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH LITTLE
    TILT EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, ARGUES FOR A LOWER SHEAR
    ESTIMATE. BASED ON THE UPDATED INITIAL POSITION, TC 26S APPEARS TO
    HAVE STARTED THE LONG AWAITED TURN TO THE SOUTH, HAVING ROUNDED THE
    RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOW BEGIN ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD
    THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WHILE
    POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF
    INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS,
    MOVEMENT OF LAND AND INTERACTION BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONSPIRE TO
    RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 26S. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-
    TROPICAL TRANSITION JUST AFTER LANDFALL, AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT
    WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. FULL TRANSITION TO A STRONG, NEAR STORM-
    FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 48 ALONG
    THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH
    CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
    HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z,
    110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNINGS
    (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
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