• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0347

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 9 21:57:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092157
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092156=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-092300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0347
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0456 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southeast Missouri...southern
    Illinois...far southwest Indiana...far western Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092156Z - 092300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway, atop a dry
    boundary layer. Some of the stronger storms may support large hail
    development in addition to a few damaging gusts. After collaboration
    with WFO PAH, a WW issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete convection has been gradually maturing
    within a broad confluence zone, with MRMS mosaic radar data
    depicting 1hr MESH approaching the 1 inch threshold. Surface
    temperatures have exceeded 80F, with surface dewpoints barely
    reaching 50 F. A dry boundary layer is in place, supporting
    low-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km across much of the Ohio
    Valley. With the latest Mesoanalysis sampling up to 7 C/km lapse
    rates, up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 30-40 kts of effective bulk
    shear, large hail may accompany some the strongest, longest lived
    updrafts. The dry boundary layer may also support efficient downward
    momentum transport of some of the stronger downdraft cores, though
    it is unclear how widespread the more damaging winds will be given
    tropospheric winds remaining generally below 35 kts beneath 500 mb.

    ..Squitieri.. 04/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sPH3f1przofNYQLF-nkyQoPhuvIO7ow6lpPXzbKMluS9r7jcEKpw9-P9dMw9B7-ccNzrSfJV$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 36899122 37859046 38398976 38798876 38918786 38868736
    38608698 38098686 37618712 37288796 36928896 36818976
    36739018 36899122=20



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