• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0345

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 9 20:15:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092015
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092014=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-092115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0345
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

    Areas affected...central and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas/North
    Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 092014Z - 092115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Eventual storm development expected across this region
    will likely require WW issuance late this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Midday RAOB from KOKC revealed stout capping just above
    850 mb, supporting persistent low cloud cover across central
    Oklahoma. While the low clouds persist, a slight change in
    character toward more cumuliform elements is occurring --
    particularly over portions of western/southwestern Oklahoma.

    As a cold front continues to advance southeastward across this area,
    ahead of a mid-level vort max shifting southeastward out of the High
    Plains, ascent will continue to allow the cap to weaken -- resulting
    in eventual storm development. Intensity of the initial cells over
    far western Oklahoma will likely remain limited, but with 2000 J/kg
    mixed-layer CAPE now indicated within the very steep lapse rates
    within the elevated mixed layer above the cap, robust storms will
    likely evolve.

    Storm intensity will be aided by a belt of stronger mid-level flow
    expected to spread across the region south/southeast of the upper
    system. Along with potential for locally damaging wind gusts, very
    large hail will also be possible with the strongest/rotating storms.

    ..Goss/Thompson.. 04/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rA98qaJ461JqJ5XYckOtInj-WTYocFQAaK4vj20DTDQ_C5XDxQ3n1KdTSiK_nTWOXSqjZ4My$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35389873 36389838 37019704 37019488 36089383 34429374
    33199511 33479796 34439850 35389873=20



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