• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0342

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 9 18:25:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091825
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091825=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-092000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0342
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0125 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of northeast Texas...northern
    Louisiana...southeastern Arkansas and northwestern Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76...

    Valid 091825Z - 092000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to gradually increase and
    intensify, with a period of rapid intensification possible by 3-5
    PM, as activity spreads into the lower Mississippi Valley. The
    potential for large, damaging hail will increase along with the risk
    for damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Aided by forcing for ascent in the left exit region of
    the approaching strong high-level jet, mid-level convection
    continues to increase in an area now centered across the Ark-La-Tex
    region. This has included a number occasionally intensifying
    embedded cells, but activity has yet to root within the surrounding destabilizing boundary layer. To the east of the ongoing activity,
    the latest Rapid Refresh continues to indicate that moisture return
    and low-level ascent supported by warm advection will contribute to
    further deepening of the boundary-layer, beneath steep mid-level
    lapse rates associated with the elevated mixed-layer air.=20
    Increasing inflow of this air (with mixed-layer CAPE on the order of
    2000-3000 J/kg) seems likely to contribute to rapid intensification
    of this convection by 20-22Z, if not before, as it spreads across
    northern Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas and the Mississippi Delta
    region. In addition to increasing potential for large, damaging
    hail, and localized strong surface gusts, further upscale convective
    growth and organization is possible as surface cold pools begin to
    develop and consolidate.

    ..Kerr.. 04/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oP0F4fzcvlpblzroi3DT3SXV6_4tslxpZMYa_f80NdHqoVI3WE70ewu02qJL80Ut6ScDQR35$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 32169536 32349398 33009359 33399229 34069170 34439154
    34989121 34898996 33768977 32479101 31759255 31409365
    31349514 32169536=20



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