• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0340

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 9 16:45:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091645
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091644=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-091845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0340
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1144 AM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of central Alabama and adjacent portions of
    eastern Mississippi and western Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 091644Z - 091845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered, intensifying thunderstorm development appears
    possible by 1-3 PM CDT, posing increasing potential for large,
    possibly damaging hail. It is not yet certain a severe weather
    watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for
    this possibility.

    DISCUSSION...Daytime heating of a deepening moist boundary layer,
    beneath the eastern fringes of plume of warm elevated mixed-layer
    air is contributing to moderately large mixed layer CAPE across much
    of central Alabama and surrounding areas. Mid-level inhibition
    appears relatively weak, and various model output indicates the
    initiation of increasing scattered thunderstorm development is
    possible by 18-20Z. Mid/upper support for this is unclear, but much
    of the region is under the influence of at least broad, weak
    low-level warm advection.=20

    Low-level wind fields are modest to weak, but westerly flow on the
    order of 30-40+ kt may persist and contribute to sufficient
    deep-layer shear for supercell structures posing a risk for severe
    hail. Some of this could become fairly large, given the
    thermodynamic profiles. It is possible an eventual consolidation of
    storms could lead to an upscale growing and organizing cluster of
    storms posing increasing potential for damaging wind gusts.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vYu11in9v7v_NYHdffK9z9EWNsLZL96MxIJ7hv_siMc_-iLL_9SUgWo7wrY5A6U9gHiSPo1G$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33998893 34258727 33828576 33218490 32148510 32118651
    31928790 32498921 33998893=20



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