• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0341

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 9 17:37:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091737
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091737=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-091930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0341
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1237 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

    Areas affected...southeastern West Virginia...southern and western Virginia...and northern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 091737Z - 091930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe risk -- including potential for locally damaging
    winds, and possibly a tornado or two -- is expected to increase
    gradually over the next couple of hours. A WW may eventually be
    needed.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows low clouds that remain
    slow to erode east of the Appalachian crest, and north of a
    west-to-east remnant damming front in the vicinity of the North Carolina-Virginia border. Near and south of this boundary, and
    westward along the higher terrain, diurnal heating has pushed
    mixed-layer CAPE values to around 1000 J/kg. This is supporting an
    increase in TCU/CB from eastern West Virginia southward to far
    western North Carolina, along with expanding, shallower cumulus
    eastward in the vicinity of the aforementioned front.

    With time, a continued increase in convection is expected. Aided by
    favorable low-level and deep-layer shear -- particularly near and
    just north of the front -- a few stronger storms will likely evolve,
    including potential for a supercell or two. The latest CAM output
    suggests that severe risk should begin to ramp up between 19Z and
    20Z, which seems consistent with the gradually evolving CU field.=20
    Risk should remain rather short-lived over western portions of the
    area, with storms weakening as they shift off the higher terrain and
    atop the more stable boundary layer. Risk may linger into the
    evening, however, across the southern Virginia area along the
    remnant front.

    ..Goss.. 04/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pvMG1gwRhpLRPliy6mfGeBz-QQX0yuMtW3QqMi6zemj9zJ85LBoHfb--Al6KYJQzuCjcjA-B$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

    LAT...LON 39027935 38707888 37747900 37397921 37397845 37397740
    37017673 36477670 36377826 36438008 36078121 36448176
    36938119 38018066 39027935=20



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