• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0339

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 9 14:49:48 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091449
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091449=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-091645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0339
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0949 AM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of northeast Texas...southeastern Oklahoma...southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 091449Z - 091645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Intensifying, strong to severe thunderstorm development is
    possible across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity by early afternoon,
    including increasing potential for large, damaging hail, locally
    strong surface gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. A severe weather
    watch probably will be needed at some point, perhaps by around Noon,
    possibly sooner.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated near the Red River,
    northeast of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. This appears
    associated with moistening and destabilization above the capping
    elevated mixed-layer air, aided by forcing for ascent beneath the
    left exit region of an approaching high-level jet of lower-latitude
    Pacific origin. CAPE supporting this convection is initially weak,
    but activity is occurring above a broader area of lower/mid
    tropospheric warm advection, with southerly low-level level moisture
    return ongoing near the storms, eastward toward the Ark-La-Tex.=20=20

    As lift associated with warm advection continues, various model
    output suggests that mid-level capping will continue to erode,
    allowing for storm development supported by inflow of moist parcels characterized by moderate to large CAPE. Shear through the
    cloud-bearing layer will also become larger and the potential for
    severe hail will probably increase. Gradually, activity may become increasingly rooted in a destabilizing boundary layer across
    northeastern Texas into the Ark-La-Tex vicinity toward 18-19Z. As
    this occurs, severe weather threat likely will increase, with the
    evolution of supercell structures possible, accompanied by the
    potential to produce large, damaging hail, locally damaging wind
    gusts and a risk for a tornado.

    ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pOwDTUP9XeDX_pSYomX_mqP_S3CfGsVG0UuwTEuBK0HHbkWsQ2RWVBq_ZXFrnKFSaaPpHvrb$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34359748 35059644 34649497 34129346 32899322 31979406
    32319552 32919669 33079726 34359748=20



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