• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0338

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 9 12:38:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091238=20
    GAZ000-ALZ000-091515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0338
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0738 AM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

    Areas affected...Southern and Central Alabama...Western Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 091238Z - 091515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated large-hail and wind-damage threat will
    continue to develop across parts of southern and central Alabama
    this morning. Cells are expected to increase in coverage. Weather
    watch issuance may need to be considered later this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a warm front from
    southern Mississippi eastward across southern Alabama. Thunderstorms
    are forming in the vicinity of the front to the west-southwest of
    Montgomery, Alabama. Additional storms are developing to the
    southwest of Columbus, Georgia. RAP forecast soundings along the
    front suggest that MUCAPE is near 2000 J/kg. Effective shear is
    estimated in the 35 to 40 kt range according to regional WSR-88D
    VWPs. This environment will support supercell development over the
    next few hours. Cells that track east-northeastward near the front
    may be associated with a wind-damage and brief tornado threat. The
    storms will also produce isolated large hail. Cells that move to the
    north of the warm front will predominately have a large hail threat.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 04/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sDqcp3YC6eLeieoTDfWd2vEa8SzPspRnGHgeAipAq18dyQeOlsDrBztkUXyXovubovupagL5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 31488546 31248615 31048687 31088761 31268808 31658818
    32078796 32768679 32928598 32988517 32838413 32538403
    32068411 31838444 31488546=20



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