• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0337

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 9 07:50:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090750
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090749=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0337
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0249 AM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

    Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 090749Z - 091015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal hail threat is expected in the central Gulf
    Coast area early this morning from far southeast Louisiana eastward
    across the Florida Panhandle. Weather watch issuance is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over
    the Mississippi Valley with an east-to-west plume of mid-level
    moisture located in the central Gulf Coast region. Thunderstorms are
    ongoing along the southern edge of this plume from just off the
    coast of far southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi.
    Other storms are ongoing near the Florida Panhandle to the southeast
    of Panama City, Florida. The storms in the central Gulf Coast are
    supported by a warm advection regime that will continue through the
    remainder of the night. Moderate deep-layer shear is present with
    the Mobile WSR-88D VWP showing 0-6 km shear near 40 kt. This will
    support both multicell and supercell development. The hodograph
    suggests that left-moving storms will be possible. The shear
    combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.5 C/km, according
    to the RAP, will be favorable for hail with the stronger updrafts.
    However, any hail threat is expected to be marginal through
    daybreak.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 04/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ov1qV5DKvErmdaUOW0rlToX-apSzqB9qjaccDyAuqk8WRUnCsjkTYRXj6oefCp_5AyKWJZcR$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

    LAT...LON 29158875 28808920 28808967 28988997 29339015 29829009
    30378968 30628883 30778738 30798609 30738493 30518436
    30068417 29668435 29458477 29508538 29848590 30068656
    29988792 29568848 29158875=20



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