• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0336

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 9 02:58:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 090258
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090258=20
    TXZ000-090500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0336
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0958 PM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of east TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 090258Z - 090500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A long-lived supercell may continue to produce large hail
    in the short term, but it should continue weakening this evening.
    Additional storms also posing an isolated large hail threat may
    develop this evening across parts of east Texas.

    DISCUSSION...A persistent supercell with a history of producing
    large to very large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter) has weakened
    some to the southeast of College Station TX. This weakening trend
    will likely continue over the next couple of hours as it encounters
    increasing MLCIN, but large hail may still be possible with this
    supercell in the short term. Other convection is in the process of
    deepening farther north in east TX as a south-southwesterly
    low-level jet strengthens this evening. This activity may also pose
    a threat for isolated large hail, with MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
    and 50-60+ kt of deep-layer shear capable of supporting supercell
    structures. Current expectations are for this hail threat to remain
    too isolated for watch issuance this evening.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tJlEhjERKK3bzh1ZE-6pUa3zd9_B7pc9iUKkZ_cTDD1JftHODFx_zX01IOJZc2OJAOMXb3nf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 30339550 30149573 30199605 30679633 31539687 32029685
    32389653 32639598 32609539 32479521 31699507 31399548
    31039584 30699583 30339550=20



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