• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0335

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 8 21:59:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082159
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082158=20
    TXZ000-090000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0335
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0458 PM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 082158Z - 090000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop early this evening, with mainly
    an isolated large hail threat. A watch is not currently expected,
    but trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite and radar imagery show
    towering cumulus developing near the intersection of a surface
    dryline and warm front in central TX. Although large-scale ascent
    remains nebulous across this region, there appears to be just enough
    low-level convergence to support a sustained updraft. Indeed, one
    cell has recently produced CG lightning flashes. Steep mid-level
    lapse rates and increasing low-level moisture are supporting strong
    instability across this region. A long, straight hodograph above the
    boundary layer is fostering 50+ kt of deep-layer shear, which will
    easily support a supercell. Isolated instances of large hail should
    be the primary concern, but increasing low-level moisture and a
    favorable shear profile in the 0-1 km layer suggest some potential
    for surface-based storms this evening. At this point, the overall
    coverage of storms appears rather uncertain, and the severe threat
    may remain quite isolated. Therefore, watch issuance is not
    currently expected, but radar trends will be monitored.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v8NWn4oi7ckKRvR9I30hCmjkDXJ4Hyaa6LsIvvo9d7KqQN2ZYlrxvBvEGsjnZMZTDjEskni1$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32219818 32159774 31969743 31649742 31159764 31079839
    31259859 31439868 31819873 32049861 32219818=20



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